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Beijing cornered by HK people
power
Willy Wo-Lap Lam,
CNN Senior China Analyst
Tuesday, July 8, 2003 Posted: 0848 GMT ( 4:48 PM HKT)
HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- The display of people power
in Hong Kong last week will likely be cited by the
Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) conservative elements
as a reason for not pressing ahead with political
liberalization in China.
In an internal speech during student demonstrations in
late 1986 -- deemed a precursor to the great 1989
democracy movement -- Deng Xiaoping warned his younger
colleagues about "Polish disease."
The late patriarch was referring to the infectious
nature of the labor and pro-democracy crusade in
Poland spearheaded by Solidarity leader Lech Walesa.
Political sources in Beijing said what had already
become known in some quarters as "the Hong Kong
democracy disease" could be set up as a "negative
example" for not going ahead with Western-style
democracy in the mainland.
After all, it was the 500,000-strong rally in the
Special Administration Region (SAR) that forced Chief
Executive Tung Chee-hwa to make one concession after
another regarding the draconian national security bill.
After Tung reversed a decision last Monday and agreed
to postpone the ant-subversion legislation,
pro-democracy forces in the SAR are gearing up for
more mass-based street actions to fight for
universal-suffrage polls to pick legislators and even
the chief executive.
While it was relatively easy in the mid-1980s for
Beijing to impose a news blackout on the Polish
Solidarity movement, the Internet and other new media
have made old-style censorship impossible.
The July 1 demo was not reported by the mainland's
mainstream media.
And apart from brief statements by the foreign
ministry spokesman and a legal committee of the
National People's Congress, the authorities have kept
mum over the biggest crisis to have hit the SAR
government since 1997.
However, intellectual circles in Beijing and other big
cities are abuzz with discussions about the
ramifications of the pivotal event.
"It is well-nigh the first time on Chinese territory
that 'people power' has forced the authorities to make
a big concession," a Beijing-based social scientist
said.
"Particularly if the pro-democracy forces in the SAR
are to up the ante and mobilize the masses to clamor
for real elections, there will be a sizeable ripple
effect upon mainland intellectuals' campaign for a
quicker pace of reform," he said.
It is an interesting coincidence that July 1 marked to
some extent a setback for liberalization in Chinese
politics.
Up until late May, there were expectations that
President and Party Chief Hu would deliver a major
address on "democracy within the party" to mark the
CCP's 82nd birthday.
Hu was tipped to make pledges about more transparency
in decision-making -- and more leeway for cadres to
choose provincial and municipal party secretaries.
However, the term "intra-party democracy," which
figured prominently in the first draft of the July 1
speech, did not make it into the final version.
Instead, Hu merely underscored the importance of
studying ex-president Jiang Zemin's "Theory of the
Three Represents" (that the party represents the
foremost productivity, the most advanced culture and
the masses' interest).
And while Hu had given the Three Represents Theory a
new twist by emphasizing the "close to the masses"
credo, he did not go beyond hackneyed slogans such as
the fact that "the party's basis is serving the public,
and administration is for the sake of the people."
Last Saturday, the official China News Service ran a
long article by the Vice-President of the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences, Li Shenming, on why "China
must never implement the multi-party system of the
West."
Li warned that if China were to give up CCP leadership,
"the mountains and rivers will break apart, and all
life will come to nought."
For the time being, Hu and his aides are expected to
confine themselves to less controversial reforms such
as changes in the constitution and the legal system.
On the Hong Kong front, while it is no secret that
both Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao -- who left Hong Kong
shortly before the July 1 demo -- have a low
assessment of Tung's abilities, they have little
choice but to continue propping up his administration.
It is true that Hu and Wen have built their legitimacy
on being close to the masses -- a quality that Wen
demonstrated with great effectiveness during his
48-hour SAR tour.
However, as Chinese University of Hong Kong Sinologist
Wu Guoguang pointed out, "the Hu-Wen team cannot
afford to be seen as making too many concessions on
sensitive issues such as the national security bill."
Wu said that up to now, Hu was unassailable on Hong
Kong policy because Tung and most Hong Kong-related
cadres were appointees of Jiang and his Shanghai
Faction.
"However, if the pro-democratic forces in the SAR are
seen as gaining more ground due to Beijing's 'softness',
the Hu-Wen team will come under heavy flak from the
conservatives, including Jiang's associates," Wu added.
Moreover, a much speeded-up pace of democratization in
the SAR might not suit Hu's purpose because it may
upset his program of cautious, incremental
liberalization for the mainland.
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