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Japan Defense Agency
set 3 scenarios of "China attack"
Japanese Defense Agency officials established in
internal meetings three scenarios of possible attacks
on Japan by China as the agency prepares to revamp
national defense strategy, agency sources said Sunday.
The scenarios are attacks stemming from disputes over
ocean resources and territorial claims over the
Senkaku Islands as well as a clash across the Taiwan
Strait, they said.
While the scenarios are assumptions for discussions on
Japan's future defense capability, they indicate a
strong warning that China is a threat and are likely
to further upset Beijing amid the ongoing political
standoff over the development of gas fields in the
East China Sea and the territorial dispute over the
Senkaku Islands.
The scenarios are stipulated in the final report
compiled in September by the agency's committee on
defense capability. The agency has not made the report
public as it will be used for further discussions on
the revision of the National Defense Program Outline,
they said.
The agency is planning to finish compiling by the end
of November the revised defense outline, which is
aimed at responding to new threats such as terrorism.
The outline was first compiled in 1976 and revised in
1995.
According to the sources, the report predicts China
will ''strengthen its military capability in order to
demonstrate its capability to Taiwan and the United
States, and will be the greatest military power in the
Asia-Pacific region in the future.''
In the case of a clash between China and Taiwan, China
may attack parts of Japan to prevent aid from U.S.
forces in Japan, according to the scenarios.
In the second scenario, the report says China may take
military action to seize the Senkakus if Chinese
public criticism of the Chinese Communist Party over
the territorial dispute grows strong enough to
threaten its leadership.
The islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China and
the Tiaoyutais in Taiwan, are controlled by Japan but
claimed by Beijing and Taipei.
As for the third scenario, the report says China may
conduct illegal moves to secure its interests in the
East China Sea if it deems Japan did not take what
Beijing believes to be appropriate measures regarding
the dispute over development of gas fields near the
boundary of the two sides.
Japan and China are at loggerheads over their natural
gas exploration activities near the median line in the
East China Sea. They hold different definitions of
where the exclusive economic zones are separated.
The report notes while China ''is cautious about using
military force to solve international issues as it
understands that doing so will hinder its own
development,'' it is ''likely that the Chinese
Communist Party will go its own way to secure its
sovereignty and territory as well as expand its
interests in the sea.''
The discussions on possible Chinese attacks are also
believed to be behind Japan's plans to shift its troop
alignment focus from the north, made under the
assumption of Soviet threats during the Cold War, to
the south near Okinawa and the Nansei Islands, closer
to China and Taiwan, the sources said.
The agency's caution about potential threats from
China was apparently due to increased concerns brewing
among politicians in the ruling coalition on how to
deal with China's growing military, political and
economical power, the sources said.
Meanwhile, the report also stresses the need for
diplomatic efforts to avoid conflicts with China. It
says that while the Japan-U.S. alliance needs to be
strengthened to prepare for Chinese threats, ''economic
and technological cooperation from neighboring
countries is essential for a stable China.''
Source: Kyodo News
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